Oscar Predictions!

Well, tonight is the Oscars ceremony and what kind of movie blog would this be without an entry on the biggest movie awards show? To be honest, I’ve found it difficult to muster up much enthusiasm for the Oscars in recent years. The Academy Awards are political and the winners are rarely representative of the year’s true best. Still, they’re better than the Golden Globes – the Academy Awards at least have a certain level of prestige. Like it or not, the Oscars hold a lot of influence over a movie’s exposure, and I can hardly dismiss them as irrelevant.

This year is a special one for the Oscars because the Academy has decided to bump up the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten, the first time since 1944 they’ve done so. When I first heard about the change, I chalked it up to an attempt to get better ratings for the telecast. Ratings have been down the last few years, and many people believed the reason was because viewers simply weren’t familiar with the movies nominated. And so with the extra nominees this year, a few more popular movies got a nod that probably wouldn’t have otherwise (The Blind Side, District 9, Up) and the name recognition of these movies might lure a few people to turn on their TVs. Will having twice as many nominees for Best Picture really change much though? I don’t think so. Had there only been the usual five, the nominees would have likely fallen in line with the nominees for Best Director (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air) – though nominated, the other five don’t stand a chance of winning. Still, being able to put “Nominated for Best Picture” on your DVD case is a big deal, and I’m happy to see District 9, one of my favorites of the summer, get the formal recognition.

The real race this year is between James Cameron’s behemoth, Avatar, and Kathryn Bigelow’s, The Hurt Locker. Avatar has been the favorite to win for weeks and as the highest grossing movie of all time, it’s the one most people watching at home will be rooting for. But The Hurt Locker got the most critical attention this year – and if you ask me, it’s the year’s best film. Adding to the fun of the race is the fact that the two directors were once married – something you can be sure hosts Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin will be making plenty of jokes about.

So who take home those little golden trophies this year? My fearless predictions are below. We’ll see tonight how close I came.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

My Prediction: The Hurt Locker. Every week that passes, Avatar loses a little steam, and in the end, I think voters will recognize that The Hurt Locker is the better film. Avatar is a remarkable achievement and it’ll take many of the technical awards, but The Hurt Locker is the year’s most important film, encapsulating the Iraq War better than any previous film on the subject has. Avatar may still take the grand prize, but none of the other nominees stand a chance against these two.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow. Avatar might take Best Picture, but this one’s all Bigelow’s. There’s a fair amount of anti-Cameron sentiments floating around, and the man has already won for Titanic. Also working in Bigelow’s favor is the fact that she would be the first woman to ever win the award (she’s only the fourth to be nominated). Not to mention, she completely deserves it.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

My prediction: Jeff Bridges. Bridges has been “That Guy” in Hollywood for years, making strong supporting appearances in smaller films but never a major leading role. This is the performance that has been getting the most buzz, and none of the other nominees would be as meaningful of a win as this one.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Casey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

My Prediction: Sandra Bullock. People love Sandra Bullock. It’s the only way to explain how The Proposal grossed over $300 million. At this point Meryl Streep’s nomination is practically obligatory and not enough people are familiar enough with An Education for Casey Mulligan to trump Bullock (though she did win the BAFTA award for which Bullock wasn’t even nominated).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Christoph Waltz. More than any other nominee in the whole damn ceremony, Waltz has this in the bag. Quentin Tarantino may never win an Oscar for directing, but he gets great performances out of his actors and they will continue to win in his place. Waltz’s cutthroat and excitable Nazi was one of the best parts of an already wildly entertaining film, and I couldn’t be happier with all the recognition he’s getting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Penélope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious)

My Prediction: Mo’Nique. The Oscars love intensity, and there’s plenty of that here. After Waltz, Mo’Nique is one of the safest bets in the race. For smaller films such as Precious, the Academy often recognizes the whole film in one category, and that will be the case here. I loved Farmiga and Kendrick in Up in the Air, but they’ll have to wait for a different year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up

My Prediction: The Hurt Locker. This is a solid lineup, but The Hurt Locker will trump here. It’s a smart movie that’s as much an examination of masculinity as it is an action film. Bigelow may get most of the credit for this movie, but without the authentic details and episodic structure of the script, the movie would not be as memorable. The Coen Brothers could surprise with A Serious Man, but I wouldn’t bet on it. And as much as I love Basterds, it’s too eccentric and violent for the Academy.

BEST ADAPTED SCREEPLAY

Nominees: District 9, An Education, In the Loop, Precious, Up in the Air

My Prediction: Up in the Air. Up in the Air manages to pull of comedy and genuine emotion while also reflecting on the place of humanity in an increasingly technology-dependent world. It’s a wonderful script and I’ll be happy to see it win.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up

My Prediction: Up. Pixar can rest safely once again. And while it’d be nice to see Wes Anderson’s clay-mation Mr. Fox win, the Best Picture nomination for Up is a pretty clear sign where people’s sentiments are here.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Nominees: Ajami (Israel), El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru), Un Prophète (France), The White Ribbon (Germany)

My Prediction: The White Ribbon. This is category that’s always tough to call. After Germany’s The Lives of Others upset Pan’s Labyrinth a few years ago, however, German cinema has been becoming increasingly prominent, so my bet is with this German-language film from Michael Haneke.

And my predictions for the rest of the nominees…

Art Direction: Avatar

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

Costume Design: Coco Before Chanel

Documentary: Burma VJ

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Makeup: Star Trek

Original Score: Up

Original Song: “The Weary Kind” (Crazy Heart)

Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing: Avatar

Visual Effects: Avatar

And as is tradition, three complete guesses on the nominees for the shorts based entirely on their names (thankfully, Academy members have to see these in a special screening before they can vote for them)…

Documentary Short: The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner

Live Action Short: Instead of Abracadabra

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

That’s all of them. We’ll see tonight at 8:30pm how many I got right, and I’ll check in tomorrow with some general thoughts about the evening.

- Steve Avigliano, 3/07/10