Oscar Predictions 2012

I can gripe all I want about them but the Oscars aren’t going anywhere so we might as well have some fun. Last year I was 12 for 24 guessing the winners so let’s see if I can’t do a little better this year.

Picture: The Artist

Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants

Actress: Viola Davis, The Help

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants

Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris

Animated Film: Rango

Art Direction: The Artist

Cinematography: The Tree of Life

Costume Design: W.E.

Documentary Feature: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Film Editing: The Artist

Foreign Film: A Separation (Iran)

Makeup: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Music (Original Score): The Artist

Music (Original Song): “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets

Short Film (Animated): Morning Stroll

Short Film (Live Action): Time Freak

Sound Editing: War Horse

Sound Mixing: Hugo

Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

- Steve Avigliano, 2/26/12

Awards Season Blues

When did “awards season” become a phrase? It is certainly an accurate descriptor – the avalanche of end-of-the-year movie awards has become as interminable and seemingly unending as a Northeast winter (which has actually been rather mild this year in Jersey) – but has this time of year always been flooded with so much self-congratulatory nonsense? The Oscars have long been a staple of the industry’s love for itself but now we also have the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the People’s Choice Awards, the SAG Awards, etc., ad nauseam. The airwaves are positively saturated with three-plus hour broadcasts praising the Hollywood elite!

There is nothing wrong with recognizing the year’s best films and performances, and I understand these shows’ appeal. They are fun. Today’s media does not paint a flattering picture of celebrity and these red carpet spectacles offer a certain image of Hollywood glitz and glamour that has otherwise been long lost to paparazzi photos.

Maybe you enjoy seeing who Michelle Williams is wearing or watching Ryan Seacrest pretend to care about how honored Jonah Hill is to be there (Mr. Seacrest has made an art out of vapid celebrity chit-chat). I have no beef with any of that. What frustrates me is how repetitive the actual awards have become.

Each award show's nominees are culled from the same small batch of films and we hear their titles repeated again and again – The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo – until they are ingrained in our heads as the Chosen Films for this year. Rather than using the end of the year as an opportunity to praise different styles or recommend lesser seen films, December through February has become a time when a select few movies battle for entry into the contemporary cinematic canon whether they deserve it or not.

Awards season begins a little earlier than this though and many of the nominated films are released in the last quarter of the year. Beginning in the fall and chugging along into the early winter, a new batch of historical biopics and stuffy dramas reach theaters, each trying to generate some buzz. Studios do not want their Oscar prospects to be forgotten when the nominees are chosen so they release them as close to the telecast as possible.

This scheduling choice has a wearying effect on audiences. A handful of movies you have only just heard about are being praised as the must-sees of the season and even though the movies range in their subjects, there is a feeling of sameness to them. They all arrive with the label, “Oscar-worthy,” which can have a damaging effect on them. The Artist, The Descendants, and Hugo are all interesting films worth seeing but when these award shows lump them together and pit them against one another, they suddenly feel a lot less interesting. And it can be difficult to give each one a fair shake when their releases are piled on top of each other.

I argue that this idea of seasons is hurting movies on a whole. Is awards season really the only time when thoughtful, well-acted movies can be released? Can’t we see something besides action blockbusters and raunchy comedies in the summertime? The most common complaint I hear about movies today is that they’re all the same. There are no new ideas left, people say. Surely this can’t be true but evidence that suggests otherwise is hard to find.

The reason for this is that studios all have the same goals in mind. Superheroes and men trapped in their adolescence are popular. They’re safe bets. Studios can rest easy knowing they’ll turn a profit as long as the marketing is relentless. A similar business model applies to the “Oscar-worthy.” They are often made on lower budgets and appeal to smaller demographics but studios still want to make money off them. So they wait until awards season to release them and hope that critics and Academy voters will usher them through the various award shows leading up to Oscar night.

So are the nine movies nominated for Best Picture truly representative of the best that 2011 had to offer? Of course not. The Academy has specific (and pretentious) tastes and this year’s nominees run the gamut of typical Oscar fare. You have your sentimental weepies (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help), some cinephile pandering (The Artist, Hugo), and the requisite period drama from Steven Spielberg (War Horse).

The remaining four (The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life) are harder to label and, perhaps not coincidentally, are my favorites of the bunch. These are the films I predict will survive the season and maybe even get better with time. The other five, I’m not so convinced about (though I did like Hugo and War Horse). Years from now, which film had a strong showing during awards season will not matter. The Oscars’ history is full of misplaced praise and overlooked classics; they hardly have the final word.

Tomorrow and Friday, in preparation for and as an alternative to the Academy Awards, I’m going to discuss my favorite performances of the year and my personal Top 10 favorite movies of 2011. Will they stand the test of time? I think they will but, of course, who can say for sure? This is later than most critics release their picks for the year’s best but anytime is a good time to talk about great movies. Not just one season.

- Steve Avigliano, 2/22/12

Oscar Reactions 2011

Strange that year after year I watch the Academy Awards – I even get a little excited for them – expecting… Well, I don’t expect much but maybe there’s some hope in me that this year will be less boring than last. Or at least shorter. I understand of course that the Academy has a very passionate sense of self-importance to maintain, but would a two hour telecast really dampen any of the prestige? Would it kill them to cut the filler and streamline the thing? At one point, Anne Hathaway introduced Hilary Swank who introduced Kathryn Bigelow who then announced the nominees for Best Director. Was that necessary?

Hathaway and co-host James Franco had some funny moments but like many other hosts in recent years, they disappeared for stretches of time and had me wondering why the Academy even bothers with hosts if all they do is reintroduce the ceremony after a commercial break? Why not cut every other piece of fluff in the show and allow the hosts to let loose and act like real MCs? Still, I liked that they poked fun at their “younger demographic” appeal and they seemed to be having fun.

The acceptance speeches are another problem. The Academy apparently asks the nominees each year to refrain from long-winded “Thank you” speeches, a piece of advice that is continually ignored. David Seidler, who won Best Original Screenplay for The King’s Speech, was an exception, if only because he appeared to have put thought and effort into his speech.

Looking back at my predictions from last month, I guessed a pitiful 12 out of 24 correct. Over the last few weeks I conceded that my initial projection of The Social Network taking the top prizes was not going to pan out, but I missed a lot more categories than those. I was happy though to see Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s unconventional and affecting score for The Social Network win.

For me, The King’s Speech was not the year’s best film, but I rather liked Steven Spielberg’s gentle reminder before announcing the winner that many a great film failed to score the most votes in their respective year.

So that’s that. The movie industry can return to business as usual until next winter. Though if studios and journalists didn’t build up an unreasonable level excitement for the Oscars months prior to the ceremony, I can’t imagine how I’d ever be able to sit through the damn thing.

- Steve Avigliano, 2/28/11

And They're Off!: Predictions for the 2011 Oscar Race

Last week I spent a fair amount of digital space dismissing the Academy Awards and arguing that the winners are rarely representative of the year’s best. Today I’m going spend even space more doing much the opposite. Oscar nominations were announced yesterday morning, setting off the month-long period of guessing and trying to predict the winners and I’m joining the noise too because… well, because it’s fun. What follows are my early predictions for the winners in addition to my choices for who I would vote for in the major categories if I had a ballot.

Last year I got 15 out of 24 by guessing the morning of the Oscars. Let’s see how I do predicting the winners a month in advance.

BEST PICTURE

The nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

My Prediction: The Social Network. Now that the nominees have been announced, The King’s Speech is front-and-center with the most nominations, but my money is that the story of Facebook will stay strong through Oscar night. The movie has everything going for it. Impressive on a technical level and an absorbing human story too. Plus, this is the year everyone started talking about Facebook. The film’s good fortune of being so topical should work in its favor.

My Vote: Black Swan. On my own Top 10 list, Toy Story 3 was my sentimental favorite and Pixar will easily scoop up their umpteenth award for Best Animated Film. If I had a ballot to fill out though, Darren Aronofsky’s surreal, sexual nightmare would get my vote. The film is a virtuosic achievement and in many ways, was the film that most impressed me this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

My Prediction: David Fincher. Even if The King’s Speech manages to nab Best Picture, Fincher will still win this. So much of the film’s success relies on what he does with the material. No one could have told this story the way Fincher does and this year the Academy will recognize his distinctive voice.

My Vote: David Fincher. I choose Fincher for all of the aforementioned reasons plus, with a slew of unrecognized (but great) films behind him (Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac), he deserves this.

BEST ACTOR

The nominees: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)

My Prediction: Colin Firth. Exactly the kind of performance the Academy loves. Plus, The King’s Speech’s greatest strength is its actors and even if it falls short of Best Picture, this is a safe bet.

My Vote: Colin Firth. Hey, he’s going to win for a reason. This is a strong batch of performances but Firth is deservedly at the top.

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

My Prediction: Natalie Portman. The race is between Portman and Bening, but since actors make up the largest group of voting members, these awards can sometimes be a bit of a popularity contest. The newly engaged, newly pregnant Portman is as likable as they come. She also had to prepare extensively for the role, which always helps.

My Vote: Annette Bening. I loved Portman in Black Swan and she deserves her win, but I’m going to play devil’s advocate a little here and choose her main contender. My favorite performance this year is a tie between Bening and Julianne Moore as the married mothers at the center of The Kids Are All Right. For some reason, Moore hasn’t been recognized for her work the way Bening has, but in their portrayal of a troubled marriage, the interplay between the two is essential. So my vote is for Bening with a write-in for Moore. This is a fantasy anyways, so I can do what I want.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

My Prediction: Christian Bale. No one is giving him much competition here except maybe Rush, who has won before. I can’t wait to hear Bale’s acceptance speech too.

My Vote: Christian Bale. One could make the argument that a spotlight-stealing performance such as this one goes against what a “supporting role” should do in a film. Still, Bale’s drug-addled, self-absorbed, and ultimately well-meaning brother to Mark Wahlberg’s Micky is the heart of this film. The movie wouldn’t be as good as it is without him.

On a side note, no Armie Hammer for his dual role as the Winklevoss twins from The Social Network here? For shame.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

My Prediction: Melissa Leo. Leo is an actress that has gone underappreciated for a long time, and my feeling is that she will finally get recognition from her peers here. This isn’t a lock, however, and if Adams splits support for The Fighter’s actors, the young Steinfeld may swoop in. My bet is still on Leo, though.

My Vote: Hailee Steinfeld. For such a young actress to carry a film is impressive. She’s only in the “supporting” category because of inexplicable Academy logic. I was thoroughly impressed by her restraint and conviction in the part, and holding your own against Jeff Bridges is no easy task.

Another side gripe: Had Mila Kunis been nominated here for Black Swan, I’d have voted for her.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

My Prediction: The Social Network. The year’s two favorites (Network and Speech) are divided in the screenplay categories, which should mean they will both get their honors here before duking it out for Best Picture.

My Vote: The Social Network. Two hours of discussing computer programming and copyright laws shouldn’t have been as absorbing as Aaron Sorkin made them. He took the story of a website’s creation and made it a fascinating (if also largely fabricated) character study and human drama.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech

My Prediction: The King’s Speech. See above reason.

My Vote: The Kids Are All Right. Director Lisa Cholodenko along with her co-writer Stuart Blumberg capture every nuance of their characters’ quirks and speech. The movie is alternately hilarious and heartbreaking and we have a great script to thank for that.

My foolhardy predictions for the rest of the nominees, including some wild guessing on the shorts:

Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Art Direction: The King’s Speech

Cinematography: The Social Network

Costume Design: The King’s Speech

Documentary Feature: Restrepo

Film Editing: Black Swan

Foreign Language Film: Biutiful

Makeup: The Wolfman

Music (Original Score): The Social Network

Music (Original Song): “If I Rise,” 127 Hours

Sound Editing: Inception

Sound Mixing: The Social Network

Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Documentary Short: Strangers No More

Animated Short: Day & Night

Live Action Short: God of Love

I’ll return in a month to see how wrong I was.

- Steve Avigliano, 1/26/11

Awards, Lists & Prestige: A Look at the Year-End Awards Craze and the Top 10 of 2010

Now mid-January, we find ourselves in the thick of movie awards season. The critics have published their Best of the Year lists, and just about every other weekend you can catch a glimpse of the Hollywood elite sipping on drinks and wearing their designers’ finest on any number of award broadcasts. But what are we supposed to take away from this frenzy? What does winning Best Picture mean? Or topping a Top 10 list? The cynic in me is tempted to dismiss it all. “There’s no way to determine an objective best film in a given year,” he says. And he’d be right to say so.

On the other hand, the realist in me (a close cousin to the cynic) understands that, for better or worse, the end of the year hubbub that builds up to the Academy Awards is an unavoidable part of the movie industry, so there’s no sense in bemoaning its existence. Despite what one might think seeing the annual onslaught of big-budget blockbuster hopefuls each summer, studios aren’t solely interested in box office receipts. Those glittering statuettes – whatever shape they may be – offer a chance to accumulate that other type of wealth (the non-monetary kind): prestige. The fight for prestige is not limited to studios either. Who wouldn’t want those three wondrous words (“Academy Award Winner”) attached to their name in trailers for the rest of their career?

The problem is that the winners are not always deserving of their new titles. Often, the Oscars generate a lot of (ultimately fleeting) enthusiasm around undeserving films and so the list of Best Picture winners becomes riddled with forgotten movies that, in their year, were deemed the best of the best. The Academy Awards are also painfully predictable. Nominations have yet to be announced, but I can already confidently say that The Social Network will win Best Picture.

Hold on a moment, though. The cynic in me is taking control again. Sure, the Academy Awards are a fallible cultural game that cannot accurately predict which films will be remembered 10, 20, or 50 years later, but they’re hardly worthless. They help to highlight movies that the general public might not have paid attention to otherwise.

A few weeks back, for example, I saw The King’s Speech at my local theater. The movie had been getting a lot of critical attention and the Oscar prognosticators had begun to beat their drums, so I was excited to see it. I wasn’t the only one either. The movie played to a sold-out theater and ended up being a crowd-pleaser. Exiting the theater around me as the credits rolled were excited moviegoers chatting about their favorite parts. Oscar buzz led us into the theater, but the film’s humor and heart sent us home, wanting to recommend it to a friend. The film overcame the daunting expectations that are placed on an Award Winning Film and was able to sway the many subjective opinions in its audience.

Which leads me to critics’ lists. Like the Academy Awards, they do not offer a definitive statement of the year’s best films, but instead provide insight into a critic’s personal tastes. Seeing which critics chose which films as their favorites says something that the blinding glitz and glamour of the red carpet cannot. Of course, a critic’s list can be just as susceptible to end-of-the-year hype as an awards show. In my own experience, I often look back at my choices for the year’s best and scratch my head. In 2007, I wrote that Juno was the year’s best, with No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood and Zodiac all taking a backseat to that cutesy-quirky romantic comedy. Three years later, Juno is still a funny movie, but each of those other films has appreciated better, rewarding multiple viewings in a way that Juno’s one-liners cannot.

Predicting which films will be remembered years from now can be a tricky thing. So with that limitation in mind, I craft my Top 10 of 2010 list. There were no movies this year that I found truly great in the four-star sense of the word (last year I saw at least four: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, A Serious Man and Up in the Air), but there were still some very fine movies that may yet become great in time.

The numbered order is subjective almost to the point of arbitrariness, but when organizing the list, I kept in mind the following: To what degree was the film a wholly satisfying experience? How have these films appreciated in the short time since I left the theater (or ejected the DVD as the case may be)? Organizing the list in this way led to some surprising results for me, but I think the list is an honest one. What follows are the ten films that most affected me in their various ways.

10) True Grit

Of course a Coen Bros. western would be heavier on talking than shooting. The prolific writer/directors seem to be able to take their style in just about any direction they please, and their adaptation of the novel that also inspired the 1969 classic is a witty and often violent trip out West. Add a grumbling, drunken Jeff Bridges in the John Wayne role and the promising young talent of Hailee Steinfeld and you have a very entertaining film.

9) The King’s Speech

Sometimes the best historical dramas are the ones with the narrowest focus. The King’s Speech centers on King George VI’s stammer in the burgeoning years of the Radio Age. This may not sound like much of a subject for a drama, but the story is a surprisingly touching and inspirational one. Colin Firth as the titular King and Geoffrey Rush as his speech therapist are thrill to watch play off each other too.

8) The Kids Are All Right

No other movie I saw this year has as keen an understanding of how people interact as The Kids Are All Right. Annette Bening and Julianne Moore star as lesbian mothers who struggle with their children’s desire to connect with their sperm donor father (Mark Ruffalo). This is wonderful comedy that occasionally flirts with melodrama but even then remains an honest a depiction of family dynamics. That the family is an unconventional one dampens none of its universality.

7) A Prophet

This fascinating French film follows a young man’s years in prison as he navigates the multicultural politics of organized crime on the inside. Though only a handful of scenes take place outside the prison walls, the film is as expansive and grand as a crime epic. Absorbing from beginning to end.

6) The Ghost Writer

A political thriller about a biographer (Ewan McGregor) who agrees to write the memoirs of former Prime Minister Adam Lang (Pierce Brosnan) after Lang’s former ghost writer mysteriously committed suicide. Director Roman Polanski hasn’t lost any of his knack for crafting great thrillers, and this one is one of the most rich and involving mysteries in recent years. It has a phenomenal ending too.

5) The Social Network

How much is fact and how much was made up? Does it matter? Director David Fincher and writer Aaron Sorkin take the story of Facebook’s creation and turn it into the stuff of Greek drama. Jesse Eisenberg is wonderful as the borderline misanthropic Mark Zuckerberg and is surrounded by a strong supporting cast. Often dark, sometimes funny, and always engrossing.

4) Inception

Christopher Nolan is a marvelous craftsman and he outdoes himself here. He builds, then solves his own puzzle, playing by the rules he invents for himself. The result is one of the most dazzling and inventive action movies since The Matrix. Like that earlier film, Inception toys with metaphysical ideas just long enough to hold you over until the action scenes, all of which are exceptional.

3) 127 Hours

Only Danny Boyle could take the true story of Aron Ralston, who was trapped in a rock crevice for over five days, and turn it into one of the most entertaining movies of the year. Despite the seeming physical limitations of Ralston’s story, Boyle’s film is a kinetic and exhilarating ride. 127 Hours has all the tension of an action movie and its protagonist doesn’t even move for most of the film. Credit must also be given to James Franco for carrying the film in a career-best performance.

2) Black Swan

The best horror movie in years. Darren Aronofsky’s tour de force about a ballerina losing her mind is an eerie, paranoid thriller with top-shelf performances from Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey and Vincent Cassel. There are a number of twists and turns along the way, but the movie wisely does not trap itself into any one version of reality. The movie exists within Nina’s mind, so the question of what is or isn’t real is irrelevant. To her, everything is real, and I’m only all too happy to get caught up in her surreal nightmare.

1) Toy Story 3

Each of the previous Toy Story movies followed a basic formula: The toys leave the house, have an adventure, and eventually find their way home. In between, we’re treated to some exceptionally clever gags and top-notch animation. The third film delivers all of this plus a pitch-perfect, heart-breaking coda. Rarely does a sequel work as hard as Toy Story 3 to thematically unite its predecessors, but Pixar rises to the occasion and ends a wonderful series in a wholly satisfying way. Not even the unnecessary 3D could bring this movie down.

- Steve Avigliano, 1/17/11

Oscar Reactions

Well, I was 15 for 24 which puts me at 62.5%, and 7 for 8 on the major categories. Could have been worse but I need to step up my guessing game on the Shorts. To wrap up the night, I'll give out a few of my own awards for tonight's ceremony.

Biggest Surprise:

Not a lot of big ones, but I wasn't expecting Precious to take Best Adapted Screenplay. I thought there'd be a chance Quentin Tarantino would take home Best Original Screenplay (and frankly, I would have rather heard his acceptance speech than anyone else's), but Up in the Air seemed a safe bet for Adapted Screenplay.

Best Acceptance Speech:

I kind of liked Jeff Bridges's rambling list of "thank you's" and occasional bursts of laughter for no apparent reason, but my favorite was the French guy, Nicolas Schmerkin, who won for Best Animated Short. A couple weird jokes about being in America and taking 6 years to make a 15 minute film and that was it. Nice and short. Though, Sandy Powell's brief acceptance for Best Costume Design was welcome too.

Worst Acceptance Speech:

This one easily goes to Best Documentary Short where Roger Ross Williams got the Kanye treatment by his co-winner, Elinor Burkett. Not sure why they didn't both go up together, but you can relive the awkwardness here.

Easiest Way to Cut Down the Overlong Telecast:

I'm tempted to say that long dance number for Best Original Score (why were they doing "the robot" to music from The Hurt Locker?), but this award has to go to those self-indulgent speeches for every Best Actor and Actress nominee. These people don't need to hear any more about how great they are, and I certainly don't want to listen.

Other than that, the Oscars were what they always are: the Oscars... drawn-out and full of pompous self-importance. I liked Ben Stiller's Na'vi and a few of Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin's jokes (though even those weren't much to speak of), but I'm happiest to see that at the end of the day, The Hurt Locker took home the big prize it deserves and even a few of the technical awards I thought Avatar would scoop up. Congrats, Ms. Bigelow.

- Steve Avigliano, 3/08/10

Oscar Predictions!

Well, tonight is the Oscars ceremony and what kind of movie blog would this be without an entry on the biggest movie awards show? To be honest, I’ve found it difficult to muster up much enthusiasm for the Oscars in recent years. The Academy Awards are political and the winners are rarely representative of the year’s true best. Still, they’re better than the Golden Globes – the Academy Awards at least have a certain level of prestige. Like it or not, the Oscars hold a lot of influence over a movie’s exposure, and I can hardly dismiss them as irrelevant.

This year is a special one for the Oscars because the Academy has decided to bump up the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten, the first time since 1944 they’ve done so. When I first heard about the change, I chalked it up to an attempt to get better ratings for the telecast. Ratings have been down the last few years, and many people believed the reason was because viewers simply weren’t familiar with the movies nominated. And so with the extra nominees this year, a few more popular movies got a nod that probably wouldn’t have otherwise (The Blind Side, District 9, Up) and the name recognition of these movies might lure a few people to turn on their TVs. Will having twice as many nominees for Best Picture really change much though? I don’t think so. Had there only been the usual five, the nominees would have likely fallen in line with the nominees for Best Director (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air) – though nominated, the other five don’t stand a chance of winning. Still, being able to put “Nominated for Best Picture” on your DVD case is a big deal, and I’m happy to see District 9, one of my favorites of the summer, get the formal recognition.

The real race this year is between James Cameron’s behemoth, Avatar, and Kathryn Bigelow’s, The Hurt Locker. Avatar has been the favorite to win for weeks and as the highest grossing movie of all time, it’s the one most people watching at home will be rooting for. But The Hurt Locker got the most critical attention this year – and if you ask me, it’s the year’s best film. Adding to the fun of the race is the fact that the two directors were once married – something you can be sure hosts Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin will be making plenty of jokes about.

So who take home those little golden trophies this year? My fearless predictions are below. We’ll see tonight how close I came.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

My Prediction: The Hurt Locker. Every week that passes, Avatar loses a little steam, and in the end, I think voters will recognize that The Hurt Locker is the better film. Avatar is a remarkable achievement and it’ll take many of the technical awards, but The Hurt Locker is the year’s most important film, encapsulating the Iraq War better than any previous film on the subject has. Avatar may still take the grand prize, but none of the other nominees stand a chance against these two.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow. Avatar might take Best Picture, but this one’s all Bigelow’s. There’s a fair amount of anti-Cameron sentiments floating around, and the man has already won for Titanic. Also working in Bigelow’s favor is the fact that she would be the first woman to ever win the award (she’s only the fourth to be nominated). Not to mention, she completely deserves it.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

My prediction: Jeff Bridges. Bridges has been “That Guy” in Hollywood for years, making strong supporting appearances in smaller films but never a major leading role. This is the performance that has been getting the most buzz, and none of the other nominees would be as meaningful of a win as this one.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Casey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

My Prediction: Sandra Bullock. People love Sandra Bullock. It’s the only way to explain how The Proposal grossed over $300 million. At this point Meryl Streep’s nomination is practically obligatory and not enough people are familiar enough with An Education for Casey Mulligan to trump Bullock (though she did win the BAFTA award for which Bullock wasn’t even nominated).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Christoph Waltz. More than any other nominee in the whole damn ceremony, Waltz has this in the bag. Quentin Tarantino may never win an Oscar for directing, but he gets great performances out of his actors and they will continue to win in his place. Waltz’s cutthroat and excitable Nazi was one of the best parts of an already wildly entertaining film, and I couldn’t be happier with all the recognition he’s getting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Penélope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious)

My Prediction: Mo’Nique. The Oscars love intensity, and there’s plenty of that here. After Waltz, Mo’Nique is one of the safest bets in the race. For smaller films such as Precious, the Academy often recognizes the whole film in one category, and that will be the case here. I loved Farmiga and Kendrick in Up in the Air, but they’ll have to wait for a different year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up

My Prediction: The Hurt Locker. This is a solid lineup, but The Hurt Locker will trump here. It’s a smart movie that’s as much an examination of masculinity as it is an action film. Bigelow may get most of the credit for this movie, but without the authentic details and episodic structure of the script, the movie would not be as memorable. The Coen Brothers could surprise with A Serious Man, but I wouldn’t bet on it. And as much as I love Basterds, it’s too eccentric and violent for the Academy.

BEST ADAPTED SCREEPLAY

Nominees: District 9, An Education, In the Loop, Precious, Up in the Air

My Prediction: Up in the Air. Up in the Air manages to pull of comedy and genuine emotion while also reflecting on the place of humanity in an increasingly technology-dependent world. It’s a wonderful script and I’ll be happy to see it win.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up

My Prediction: Up. Pixar can rest safely once again. And while it’d be nice to see Wes Anderson’s clay-mation Mr. Fox win, the Best Picture nomination for Up is a pretty clear sign where people’s sentiments are here.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Nominees: Ajami (Israel), El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru), Un Prophète (France), The White Ribbon (Germany)

My Prediction: The White Ribbon. This is category that’s always tough to call. After Germany’s The Lives of Others upset Pan’s Labyrinth a few years ago, however, German cinema has been becoming increasingly prominent, so my bet is with this German-language film from Michael Haneke.

And my predictions for the rest of the nominees…

Art Direction: Avatar

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

Costume Design: Coco Before Chanel

Documentary: Burma VJ

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Makeup: Star Trek

Original Score: Up

Original Song: “The Weary Kind” (Crazy Heart)

Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing: Avatar

Visual Effects: Avatar

And as is tradition, three complete guesses on the nominees for the shorts based entirely on their names (thankfully, Academy members have to see these in a special screening before they can vote for them)…

Documentary Short: The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner

Live Action Short: Instead of Abracadabra

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

That’s all of them. We’ll see tonight at 8:30pm how many I got right, and I’ll check in tomorrow with some general thoughts about the evening.

- Steve Avigliano, 3/07/10