And They're Off!: Predictions for the 2011 Oscar Race

Last week I spent a fair amount of digital space dismissing the Academy Awards and arguing that the winners are rarely representative of the year’s best. Today I’m going spend even space more doing much the opposite. Oscar nominations were announced yesterday morning, setting off the month-long period of guessing and trying to predict the winners and I’m joining the noise too because… well, because it’s fun. What follows are my early predictions for the winners in addition to my choices for who I would vote for in the major categories if I had a ballot.

Last year I got 15 out of 24 by guessing the morning of the Oscars. Let’s see how I do predicting the winners a month in advance.

BEST PICTURE

The nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

My Prediction: The Social Network. Now that the nominees have been announced, The King’s Speech is front-and-center with the most nominations, but my money is that the story of Facebook will stay strong through Oscar night. The movie has everything going for it. Impressive on a technical level and an absorbing human story too. Plus, this is the year everyone started talking about Facebook. The film’s good fortune of being so topical should work in its favor.

My Vote: Black Swan. On my own Top 10 list, Toy Story 3 was my sentimental favorite and Pixar will easily scoop up their umpteenth award for Best Animated Film. If I had a ballot to fill out though, Darren Aronofsky’s surreal, sexual nightmare would get my vote. The film is a virtuosic achievement and in many ways, was the film that most impressed me this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

My Prediction: David Fincher. Even if The King’s Speech manages to nab Best Picture, Fincher will still win this. So much of the film’s success relies on what he does with the material. No one could have told this story the way Fincher does and this year the Academy will recognize his distinctive voice.

My Vote: David Fincher. I choose Fincher for all of the aforementioned reasons plus, with a slew of unrecognized (but great) films behind him (Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac), he deserves this.

BEST ACTOR

The nominees: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)

My Prediction: Colin Firth. Exactly the kind of performance the Academy loves. Plus, The King’s Speech’s greatest strength is its actors and even if it falls short of Best Picture, this is a safe bet.

My Vote: Colin Firth. Hey, he’s going to win for a reason. This is a strong batch of performances but Firth is deservedly at the top.

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

My Prediction: Natalie Portman. The race is between Portman and Bening, but since actors make up the largest group of voting members, these awards can sometimes be a bit of a popularity contest. The newly engaged, newly pregnant Portman is as likable as they come. She also had to prepare extensively for the role, which always helps.

My Vote: Annette Bening. I loved Portman in Black Swan and she deserves her win, but I’m going to play devil’s advocate a little here and choose her main contender. My favorite performance this year is a tie between Bening and Julianne Moore as the married mothers at the center of The Kids Are All Right. For some reason, Moore hasn’t been recognized for her work the way Bening has, but in their portrayal of a troubled marriage, the interplay between the two is essential. So my vote is for Bening with a write-in for Moore. This is a fantasy anyways, so I can do what I want.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

My Prediction: Christian Bale. No one is giving him much competition here except maybe Rush, who has won before. I can’t wait to hear Bale’s acceptance speech too.

My Vote: Christian Bale. One could make the argument that a spotlight-stealing performance such as this one goes against what a “supporting role” should do in a film. Still, Bale’s drug-addled, self-absorbed, and ultimately well-meaning brother to Mark Wahlberg’s Micky is the heart of this film. The movie wouldn’t be as good as it is without him.

On a side note, no Armie Hammer for his dual role as the Winklevoss twins from The Social Network here? For shame.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

My Prediction: Melissa Leo. Leo is an actress that has gone underappreciated for a long time, and my feeling is that she will finally get recognition from her peers here. This isn’t a lock, however, and if Adams splits support for The Fighter’s actors, the young Steinfeld may swoop in. My bet is still on Leo, though.

My Vote: Hailee Steinfeld. For such a young actress to carry a film is impressive. She’s only in the “supporting” category because of inexplicable Academy logic. I was thoroughly impressed by her restraint and conviction in the part, and holding your own against Jeff Bridges is no easy task.

Another side gripe: Had Mila Kunis been nominated here for Black Swan, I’d have voted for her.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

My Prediction: The Social Network. The year’s two favorites (Network and Speech) are divided in the screenplay categories, which should mean they will both get their honors here before duking it out for Best Picture.

My Vote: The Social Network. Two hours of discussing computer programming and copyright laws shouldn’t have been as absorbing as Aaron Sorkin made them. He took the story of a website’s creation and made it a fascinating (if also largely fabricated) character study and human drama.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech

My Prediction: The King’s Speech. See above reason.

My Vote: The Kids Are All Right. Director Lisa Cholodenko along with her co-writer Stuart Blumberg capture every nuance of their characters’ quirks and speech. The movie is alternately hilarious and heartbreaking and we have a great script to thank for that.

My foolhardy predictions for the rest of the nominees, including some wild guessing on the shorts:

Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Art Direction: The King’s Speech

Cinematography: The Social Network

Costume Design: The King’s Speech

Documentary Feature: Restrepo

Film Editing: Black Swan

Foreign Language Film: Biutiful

Makeup: The Wolfman

Music (Original Score): The Social Network

Music (Original Song): “If I Rise,” 127 Hours

Sound Editing: Inception

Sound Mixing: The Social Network

Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Documentary Short: Strangers No More

Animated Short: Day & Night

Live Action Short: God of Love

I’ll return in a month to see how wrong I was.

- Steve Avigliano, 1/26/11